Budget – Cantillon Consulting

Austrian Theory, Banking, Bonds, Budget, Capitalism, Central banks, Commodities, Corporatism, CPI, Credit, Cycles, Economics, Energy, Entrepreneur, Europe, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income, Government, Inflation, Macro, MMT, Money, money supply, Politics, Production, QE

Pandora’s Box

Posted on July 10, 2021February 11, 2023 by Sean Corrigan

Most people associate ‘inflation’ with rising prices, but the disease goes much deeper than that. Inflation is a phenomenon wherein money becomes so abundant it disrupts relative price formation and hence interferes with the vital transmission of information about the state of the countless interactions of supply and demand, plenty and scarcity, which take place on the market. As the fever rises, mistakes accumulate, conflicts intensify, timings clash, finances become stretched, and coherence is lost. A rising price is one thing. Prices -plural- rising at varying speeds and in an ever less predictable manner is a much more dangerous pathology.

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Bank of England, Bitcoin, BOJ, Budget, Central banks, Commodities, CPI, Crypto, ECB, Emerging Markets, Equities, Europe, Federal Reserve, Fiscal policy, Fixed Income, Government, Inflation, Japan, Keynesianism, Macro, Metals, money supply, Politics, Production, Revenues, Tech, UK, UK Treasury, US Treasury, USA

Burning Holes in Idlers’ Pockets

Posted on January 18, 2021February 11, 2023 by Sean Corrigan

Inflation, Milton Friedman famously said, is a monetary phenomenon. But it is also one given the readiest of outlets through recourse to what we call ‘fiscal’ policy – i.e., by spendthrift governments borrowing money created at their call and forced into the system by means of warfare, welfare, contracting, cronyism, bureaucratic expansion and plain old boondogglery. Arguably, this is where we find ourselves today, in a world where supply is no longer likely to meet demand as abundantly and as effortlessly as has been the case these past twenty years.

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Bonds, Budget, Central banks, Deficit, Federal Reserve, Fiscal policy, Fixed Income, Inflation, Saving, US Treasury, USA, Volatility, Yield Curve

MOVE-ing the Dial

Posted on October 8, 2020February 11, 2023 by Sean Corrigan

Bond yields have started to creep higher – and curves to flex steeper – as the market begins to fret that the willing fiscal subservience of the central bank can only presage a coming inflation. With bond volatility still reasonably cheap, now might be the time to take cognisance of this.

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Bank of England, Budget, Central banks, Economics, Fiscal policy, Fixed Income, Forex, Government, Inflation, Intervention, money supply, Revenues, UK, UK Treasury

A Great Deal of Ruin

Posted on October 3, 2020February 11, 2023 by Sean Corrigan

The Johnson government’s approach to COVID19 has been a toxic mix of contradiction, vacillation, and jackbooted authoritarianism. There seems no exit strategy and no end to the spiralling cost. We take a critical look at the impact on the budget impact and discuss what it means for inflation.

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Banking, Budget, Deficit, Federal Reserve, Fiscal policy, Fixed Income, Government, Inflation, Macro, MMT, US Treasury, USA

Fiscal Free Lunch

Posted on September 11, 2020February 11, 2023 by Sean Corrigan

[This is the first of a series of short bulletins called, ‘The Course of the Exchange’, in memory of John Castaing’s widely-read updates, posted in Jonathan’s Coffee House in Change Alley, 300 years ago]

With the latest CBO estimates for the US Federal budget for August just in, we are again in a position to take stock of the scale of the burden which the COVID-19 lockdowns and more general restrictions have imposed upon the nation’s finances. It does not make for happy reading.

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