Tag Archives: China

Bank of England, Bitcoin, BOJ, Budget, Central banks, Commodities, CPI, Crypto, ECB, Emerging Markets, Equities, Europe, Federal Reserve, Fiscal policy, Fixed Income, Government, Inflation, Japan, Keynesianism, Macro, Metals, money supply, Politics, Production, Revenues, Tech, UK, UK Treasury, US Treasury, USA

Burning Holes in Idlers’ Pockets

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

Inflation, Milton Friedman famously said, is a monetary phenomenon. But it is also one given the readiest of outlets through recourse to what we call ‘fiscal’ policy – i.e., by spendthrift governments borrowing money created at their call and forced into the system by means of warfare, welfare, contracting, cronyism, bureaucratic expansion and plain old boondogglery. Arguably, this is where we find ourselves today, in a world where supply is no longer likely to meet demand as abundantly and as effortlessly as has been the case these past twenty years.

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Bonds, Central banks, China, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Forex, Macro, Metals, Money, money supply, Profits, Trade, Yield Curve

The Ship of Fools

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

China’s ports are humming, its exports booming to the point that it is causing evident stress in maritime trade. Freight rates are soaring and dockside space is becoming limited, threatening production and raising costs across the board. Despite the macro strength – and the vote of confidence this has received from forex and equity markets – the last few weeks have been testing ones in credit. Once more the nation’s vast superstructure of debt has creaked and groaned – but just about held firm, once more. One of these fine days…

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Agriculture, Bonds, Commodities, Credit, Energy, Equities, Europe, Fixed Income, Forex, futures, Gold, High Yield, Japan, Metals, Revenues, Tech, UK, USA

Tighten Your Belts: Market Observations

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

We ended the summer by saying that – barring another disastrous, COVID19-inspired, mass governmental embargo on everyday economic activity – the miners, makers, movers, and merchants of the things we need to run our lives when we are not scrolling through Instagram or pretending to pay attention to a yet another pointless Zoom conference would begin to make up ground lost in lockdown to the providers of such diversions. State interference would henceforth take other, more chronic forms of hindrance: tending deliberately to boost demand while making its satisfaction progressively more difficult. So far – broadly speaking – so good.

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Bonds, China, Commodities, Elecction2020, Equities, Fixed Income, Forex, futures, Gold, Inflation, Japan, Metals, Money, money supply, Oil, Politics, US Treasury, USA

A Shot in the Dark

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

The ink has not even dried on the US ballot papers (!) but the Market already thinks it knows what this will all mean. And then there’s Pfizer’s vaccine announcement – perhaps similarly preliminary in nature – but, hey, the Herd will always take every silver lining it can find. Some of the themes we touched upon at the end of the Summer are still in play: Japan has been attracting money, non-oil commodities are rallying, gold has lost some lustre, bond yields are creeping higher, and Value may just be topping out at last v Growth.

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Agriculture, Autarky, Central banks, China, Credit, Fixed Income, Macro, Money, Profits, Revenues, Trade Wars, Yield Curve

Xi’s word is your bond

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

Though the latest set of profit data for China’s industrial concerns were outwardly positive, there are still many unresolved questions hanging over both the economy and the country’s politics, some of which we examine here. None of that is likely to deter bond investors and ETF buyers, of course, since their principal concern will be to bring their holdings into line with a major benchmark index which has just created a vast source of funds for Xi Jinping’s minions to exploit. We ask: should they?

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Agriculture, Central banks, Commodities, COVID19, Credit, Energy, futures, Gold, Greens, Inflation, Metals, money supply, Oil, Production, Renewables, Tech

Dead Cat or Deep Value?

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

Since their Lockdown lows, commodities have performed as well as any other asset, though they still remain generally depressed. Can they now continue to rise?

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Central banks, China, Commodities, Equities, Fixed Income, Forex, Leverage, Margin, Money

Chasing the Dragon

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

As is by now widely reported, China stocks have been on something of a tear in the past few weeks, with the CSI300, for example, up by around 20% in that time. The usual suspects have been at work as the PBOC has encouraged a renewed money flood into being and those desperate for an income – and possibly with little else to do, at present – are enticed back into what is merely the latest in the nation’s rolling series of mania and speculative booms.

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Banking, Central banks, China, Emerging Markets, Equities, Trade Wars

A Crack in the Dam?

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

Back in 2017, a minor diplomatic spat erupted when seemingly credible allegations were made that billionaire Xiao Jianhua had been abducted by agents of Chinese state security from the Four Seasons hotel in Hong Kong where he was staying. Indistinct video showed the figure, said to be Xiao under the blanket covering his head, being […]

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Banking, Central banks, China, Credit, Cycles, Draghi, ECB, Federal Reserve, Macro, MMT, Money

China Banking: Pigs Might Fly

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

There must be something in the air this winter – something that is besides the whiff of climate cant and manufactured eco-hysteria emanating from Davos and all the other organs of bien pensanterie. For, everywhere you look, someone is going less than quietly insane, either cooking up or Swedish chef rehashing glaring errors of economic idiocy […]

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China, Intervention, Macro, Trade, USA

Trade Wars: Those damn’d torpedoes are OURS!

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

For many an age, a principal element of Britain’s strategy in its frequent wars with its Continental rivals was that of the naval blockade. Throughout the long years of increasing mastery of the High Seas, the nation’s fleet admirals, frigate captains and often forcibly-impressed jack tars were frequently to be found, hovering just beyond the […]

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