Category Archives: Equities

Banking, Central banks, China, Commodities, coronavirus, COVID19, ECB, Equities, Europe, Federal Reserve, Forex, Gold, Government, Inflation, Japan, Macro, Metals, money supply, Revenues, Tech, UK, USA

The Fall Approaches

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

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It’s not just the leaves that often turn when the year begins, with gathering pace, to slip towards its chilly end. Markets often do, too.

Given this backdrop, the sell-off in the Nasdaq – in the marvelled-at ‘Growth’ stocks, in the FAANGs, and in Tesla – comes at a moment which is particularly intriguing for reasons which go far beyond whatever coup SoftBank may or may not have attempted and whether those irritating Lockdown Livermores have finally gotten their comeuppance.

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Central banks, China, Commodities, Equities, Fixed Income, Forex, Leverage, Margin, Money

Chasing the Dragon

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

As is by now widely reported, China stocks have been on something of a tear in the past few weeks, with the CSI300, for example, up by around 20% in that time. The usual suspects have been at work as the PBOC has encouraged a renewed money flood into being and those desperate for an income – and possibly with little else to do, at present – are enticed back into what is merely the latest in the nation’s rolling series of mania and speculative booms.

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Credit, Energy, Equities, Fixed Income, Gold, Inflation, Metals, Uncategorized, USA, Yield Curve

Hoping for Growth. Searching for Value.

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

Thanks very much to my old friend, Steve Sedgwick at Squawk Box Europe for the chat this morning. We looked at Growth v Value, the US v ROW, we touched on bonds and borrowing, money supply, inflation, lockdown, commodities & gold – all in under 10 minutes!

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Banking, Equities, Europe, Japan, USA

Don’t Bank On It

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

On April 13th, a financial pundit with a wide media following made the following (loosely transcribed) proposition about US banking stocks: Banks won’t rally because rates -long and short- are too low; Japan is our marker – banks there falling while their US/EZ peers rose pre-GFC and have not made any ground since; vis-à-vis their EZ peers, US bank returns have long been anomalous, ergo their out-performance won’t be repeated. We demur in the main.

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Bonds, Central banks, Commodities, Credit, Equities, Federal Reserve, Hedge Funds, Japan, Primary Dealers, Volatility

Squawk Box: Oil and more

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

Ahead of my remote appearance on CNBC Squawk Box Europe on April 3rd, I prepared a few notes for the guys which I am happy to share here with you. The main topic, ahead of the emergency OPEC meeting which briefly bolstered crude prices that week was, unsurprisingly, oil but we did also discuss the outlook for the wider economy.

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BOJ, Central banks, Economics, Equities, Inflation, Japan, Macro

Turning Japanese

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

A noted [monetary extremist] resident at GMU’s Mercatus Center fretted on March 20th that Japan’s efforts during 2001-06 to have the central bank finance deficits ‘didn’t work’ – i.e., they failed to ignite meaningful levels of wealth-sapping inflation. The reason? As our sage tells us, was that there was ‘no commitment… to a permanent expansion of the monetary base’ as expounded in the ratiocinations of that dark genius of modern central bank theorising, Michael Woodford. We replied:-

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Banking, Central banks, ECB, Equities, Europe, Federal Reserve

Utterly Negative

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

Mario Draghi emerged last week from the much-awaited meeting of the ECB Governing Council meeting clutching a fairly bland official communiqué which extended the envisaged freeze on interest rates out to the latter part of next year (aka, ‘forward guidance’), pledged that there would be no shrinkage of the Bank’s securities portfolio (so-called ‘quantitative tightening’) […]

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Banking, Central banks, China, Emerging Markets, Equities, Trade Wars

A Crack in the Dam?

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

Back in 2017, a minor diplomatic spat erupted when seemingly credible allegations were made that billionaire Xiao Jianhua had been abducted by agents of Chinese state security from the Four Seasons hotel in Hong Kong where he was staying. Indistinct video showed the figure, said to be Xiao under the blanket covering his head, being […]

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Austrian Theory, Banking, Central banks, Commodities, Credit, Crypto, Cycles, Equities, Fixed Income, Forex, Macro, Money, Yield Curve

M4 Compendium (updated)

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

As a way of providing easy access to most of the regular work we have published over the past two years – and hence to getting a feel for what we do and how we do it – please see here for a collection in PDF form, offered in reverse chronological order.

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Banking, Budget, China, Commodities, Deficit, ECB, Emerging Markets, Energy, Equities, Federal Reserve, Fiscal policy, Fixed Income, Forex, Gold, Inflation, Japan, Macro, Money, Oil, Trade, USA, Yield Curve

Trade Wars: Blue-on-Blue

Posted on by Sean Corrigan

The so-called ‘war’ over trade being conducted by the US & China has given rise to much ill-informed commentary about its supposed benefits, its prospective victims, and China’s putative responses.

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