Previously featured by the good folk at Real Vision, my look at how the narrative we construct around the events of the market is all important in determining how we react to it and, hence, what further ramifications these might involve.
Though we have come to look a little askance at the seemingly ubiquitous CAPE measure – not least because of its gratingly unnuanced adoption by the Permabears – we can still utilise it to derive some broad sense of the market’s status once we attempt to adjust it for what we see as two of […]
One of the prevailing stories which nervous market participants whisper to each other at bedtime involves the timely appearance of the Fairy God-mother, hastening to Earth from Tir Nan Og to launch another multi-trillion round of money-printing the instant that our over-inflated asset prices suffer any meaningful setback. This comforting narrative, however, presupposes three key […]
As the phenomenon which is Bitcoin continues its transition from the geek press, past the financial columns and onto the front-pages of the newspapers, a little sober reflection may be in order. Are its proponents’ claims justified when they tell us that, far from being yet another instance of the Madness of Crowds, it will […]
17-06-07 WhyWhatWho Click to get a flavour of the way we approach both markets and macro-analysis,
For extensive samples of my work, please click the link to visit the True Sinews blog – newly updated with several new, in-depth analyses.
For some months now, we have been warning of the stresses building in China’s credit structure and warning that, if unaddressed, they would lead to pain in asset markets and potentially to weakness out in the real economy. Here, we lay out the arguments in detail. 17-11-28 China
In our latest piece we look at the ECB’s overkill and all manner of possible over-valuations at work in different markets around the world – the two not being entirely unconnected, the reader might note!
A theme which frequently pops up in current financial and economic commentary is that of the burgeoning levels of outstanding debt under which all too many nations are said to groan. Typically, reference will be made to the percentage of GDP which this mountain of obligations entails, usually by way of putting it into a context […]
Though the connexion is not always explicitly drawn, one obvious corollary of the perceived current shortfall in corporate investment spending is to be found in the lacklustre nature of the gains being recorded in something called ‘productivity’. This latter deficiency is often said to have ‘puzzled’ the Good and Great who presume to be able […]